LEE vs LIV
Leeds United (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 26.4% fair 3.79
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
LIV win 48.9% fair 2.05
Expected Goals
LEE
1.03
—
1.62
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 LIV | 11.8% | |
| LEE 0-1 LIV | 11.4% | |
| LEE 1-2 LIV | 9.5% | |
| LEE 0-2 LIV | 9.2% | |
| LEE 1-0 LIV | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).