EVE vs BHA
Everton (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 28.9% fair 3.46
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
BHA win 46.8% fair 2.14
Expected Goals
EVE
1.18
—
1.66
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 BHA | 11.4% | |
| EVE 0-1 BHA | 9.7% | |
| EVE 1-2 BHA | 9.5% | |
| EVE 0-2 BHA | 8.1% | |
| EVE 1-0 BHA | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).