MUN vs CRY
Manchester United (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 47.2% fair 2.12
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
CRY win 29.0% fair 3.44
Expected Goals
MUN
1.71
—
1.28
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 CRY | 11.0% | |
| MUN 2-1 CRY | 9.4% | |
| MUN 1-0 CRY | 8.6% | |
| MUN 2-0 CRY | 7.3% | |
| MUN 1-2 CRY | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).