NEW vs TOT
Newcastle United (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 48.4% fair 2.07
Draw 22.9% fair 4.38
TOT win 28.8% fair 3.47
Expected Goals
NEW
1.84
—
1.37
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.8% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 TOT | 10.2% | |
| NEW 2-1 TOT | 9.4% | |
| NEW 1-0 TOT | 7.4% | |
| NEW 1-2 TOT | 6.9% | |
| NEW 2-0 TOT | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).