IPS vs MUN
Ipswich Town (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
MUN win 42.5% fair 2.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.6% / 23.7% / 44.7%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.39
—
1.69
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 MUN | 10.8% | |
| IPS 1-2 MUN | 9.1% | |
| IPS 0-1 MUN | 7.8% | |
| IPS 2-1 MUN | 7.5% | |
| IPS 0-2 MUN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).