FUL vs SUN
Fulham (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 50.3% fair 1.99
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
SUN win 25.0% fair 4.01
Expected Goals
FUL
1.62
—
1.03
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 SUN | 11.8% | |
| FUL 1-0 SUN | 11.5% | |
| FUL 2-1 SUN | 9.5% | |
| FUL 2-0 SUN | 9.3% | |
| FUL 0-1 SUN | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).