ARS vs AVL
Arsenal (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 63.2% fair 1.58
Draw 21.1% fair 4.75
AVL win 15.8% fair 6.34
Expected Goals
ARS
1.97
—
0.80
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 1-0 AVL | 12.3% | |
| ARS 2-0 AVL | 12.1% | |
| ARS 1-1 AVL | 9.9% | |
| ARS 2-1 AVL | 9.7% | |
| ARS 3-0 AVL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).