HUL vs COV
Hull City (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 67% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 45.6% fair 2.19
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
COV win 28.7% fair 3.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.8% / 26.0% / 28.2%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.47
—
1.10
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 COV | 12.4% | |
| HUL 1-0 COV | 11.3% | |
| HUL 2-1 COV | 9.1% | |
| HUL 0-1 COV | 8.4% | |
| HUL 2-0 COV | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).