BRE vs LEE
Brentford (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 47.5% fair 2.10
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
LEE win 28.0% fair 3.57
Expected Goals
BRE
1.62
—
1.17
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 LEE | 11.6% | |
| BRE 1-0 LEE | 9.9% | |
| BRE 2-1 LEE | 9.4% | |
| BRE 2-0 LEE | 8.0% | |
| BRE 0-1 LEE | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).