NFO vs LIV
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 25.2% fair 3.97
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
LIV win 49.3% fair 2.03
Expected Goals
NFO
0.94
—
1.54
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 0-1 LIV | 12.9% | |
| NFO 1-1 LIV | 12.1% | |
| NFO 0-2 LIV | 9.9% | |
| NFO 1-2 LIV | 9.3% | |
| NFO 0-0 LIV | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.9 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).