EVE vs BOU
Everton (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 39.0% fair 2.56
Draw 25.7% fair 3.90
BOU win 35.4% fair 2.83
Expected Goals
EVE
1.37
—
1.32
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 BOU | 12.3% | |
| EVE 1-0 BOU | 9.3% | |
| EVE 0-1 BOU | 9.0% | |
| EVE 2-1 BOU | 8.4% | |
| EVE 1-2 BOU | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).