NFO vs AVL
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 34.8% fair 2.87
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
AVL win 38.8% fair 2.58
Expected Goals
NFO
1.21
—
1.34
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 AVL | 12.7% | |
| NFO 0-1 AVL | 10.5% | |
| NFO 1-0 AVL | 9.5% | |
| NFO 1-2 AVL | 8.5% | |
| NFO 0-0 AVL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).