FUL vs LIV
Fulham (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 25.6% fair 3.91
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
LIV win 49.9% fair 2.00
Expected Goals
FUL
1.03
—
1.64
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 LIV | 11.7% | |
| FUL 0-1 LIV | 11.4% | |
| FUL 1-2 LIV | 9.6% | |
| FUL 0-2 LIV | 9.3% | |
| FUL 1-0 LIV | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).