BRE vs BOU
Brentford (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 46.3% fair 2.16
Draw 23.2% fair 4.32
BOU win 30.5% fair 3.28
Expected Goals
BRE
1.78
—
1.40
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.3% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 BOU | 10.4% | |
| BRE 2-1 BOU | 9.2% | |
| BRE 1-0 BOU | 7.4% | |
| BRE 1-2 BOU | 7.3% | |
| BRE 2-0 BOU | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).