MCI vs MUN
Manchester City (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 65.8% fair 1.52
Draw 18.0% fair 5.55
MUN win 16.1% fair 6.20
Expected Goals
MCI
2.47
—
1.06
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.5% | fair 3.18 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 MUN | 9.5% | |
| MCI 2-0 MUN | 8.9% | |
| MCI 3-1 MUN | 7.8% | |
| MCI 1-1 MUN | 7.7% | |
| MCI 3-0 MUN | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).