HUL vs CHE
Hull City (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 24.5% fair 4.08
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
CHE win 53.3% fair 1.88
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.0% / 21.8% / 57.1%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.10
—
1.95
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 CHE | 10.2% | |
| HUL 1-2 CHE | 9.9% | |
| HUL 0-1 CHE | 9.2% | |
| HUL 0-2 CHE | 9.0% | |
| HUL 1-3 CHE | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).