ARS vs SUN
Arsenal (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 74.8% fair 1.34
Draw 15.8% fair 6.33
SUN win 9.4% fair 10.61
Expected Goals
ARS
2.41
—
0.58
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 SUN | 14.6% | |
| ARS 1-0 SUN | 12.1% | |
| ARS 3-0 SUN | 11.8% | |
| ARS 2-1 SUN | 8.5% | |
| ARS 4-0 SUN | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).