BHA vs COV
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 71.8% fair 1.39
Draw 15.7% fair 6.38
COV win 12.5% fair 7.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 76.5% / 14.2% / 9.3%.
Expected Goals
BHA
2.73
—
0.87
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.7% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.3% | fair 3.30 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-0 COV | 10.2% | |
| BHA 3-0 COV | 9.3% | |
| BHA 2-1 COV | 8.8% | |
| BHA 3-1 COV | 8.1% | |
| BHA 1-0 COV | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).