IPS vs CRY
Ipswich Town (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 36.3% fair 2.75
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
CRY win 39.4% fair 2.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.9% / 24.3% / 40.9%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.43
—
1.57
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 CRY | 11.2% | |
| IPS 1-2 CRY | 8.8% | |
| IPS 2-1 CRY | 8.0% | |
| IPS 0-1 CRY | 7.8% | |
| IPS 1-0 CRY | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).