CHE vs ARS
Chelsea (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 26.9% fair 3.71
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
ARS win 48.9% fair 2.04
Expected Goals
CHE
1.12
—
1.68
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 ARS | 11.4% | |
| CHE 0-1 ARS | 10.2% | |
| CHE 1-2 ARS | 9.6% | |
| CHE 0-2 ARS | 8.6% | |
| CHE 1-0 ARS | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).