MUN vs EVE
Manchester United (home) vs Everton · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 46.2% fair 2.17
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
EVE win 28.3% fair 3.53
Expected Goals
MUN
1.50
—
1.11
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 EVE | 12.2% | |
| MUN 1-0 EVE | 11.0% | |
| MUN 2-1 EVE | 9.2% | |
| MUN 2-0 EVE | 8.3% | |
| MUN 0-1 EVE | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).