BOU vs NEW
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 39.1% fair 2.55
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
NEW win 37.3% fair 2.68
Expected Goals
BOU
1.60
—
1.59
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.3% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 NEW | 10.5% | |
| BOU 2-1 NEW | 8.4% | |
| BOU 1-2 NEW | 8.3% | |
| BOU 2-2 NEW | 6.7% | |
| BOU 1-0 NEW | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).