TOT vs NFO
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 48.4% fair 2.07
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
NFO win 26.8% fair 3.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.9% / 24.9% / 26.2%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.60
—
1.10
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 NFO | 11.8% | |
| TOT 1-0 NFO | 10.7% | |
| TOT 2-1 NFO | 9.5% | |
| TOT 2-0 NFO | 8.6% | |
| TOT 0-1 NFO | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).