CRY vs FUL
Crystal Palace (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 42.6% fair 2.35
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
FUL win 32.0% fair 3.12
Expected Goals
CRY
1.47
—
1.25
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 FUL | 12.1% | |
| CRY 1-0 FUL | 9.7% | |
| CRY 2-1 FUL | 8.9% | |
| CRY 0-1 FUL | 8.3% | |
| CRY 1-2 FUL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).