COV vs MCI
Coventry City (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 15.6% fair 6.40
Draw 16.9% fair 5.92
MCI win 67.5% fair 1.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 11.0% / 15.8% / 73.2%.
Expected Goals
COV
0.90
—
2.57
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.7% | fair 3.06 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 0-2 MCI | 10.3% | |
| COV 1-2 MCI | 9.3% | |
| COV 0-3 MCI | 8.8% | |
| COV 0-1 MCI | 8.0% | |
| COV 1-3 MCI | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).