LIV vs IPS
Liverpool (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 70.4% fair 1.42
Draw 16.7% fair 5.98
IPS win 12.8% fair 7.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 74.4% / 15.6% / 10.0%.
Expected Goals
LIV
2.52
—
0.82
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.1% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 IPS | 11.3% | |
| LIV 3-0 IPS | 9.5% | |
| LIV 2-1 IPS | 9.2% | |
| LIV 1-0 IPS | 8.9% | |
| LIV 3-1 IPS | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).