BHA vs FUL
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 59.3% fair 1.69
Draw 20.9% fair 4.79
FUL win 19.9% fair 5.03
Expected Goals
BHA
2.09
—
1.07
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-1 FUL | 9.9% | |
| BHA 1-1 FUL | 9.5% | |
| BHA 2-0 FUL | 9.3% | |
| BHA 1-0 FUL | 8.9% | |
| BHA 3-1 FUL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).