BRE vs IPS
Brentford (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 57.9% fair 1.73
Draw 21.0% fair 4.76
IPS win 21.1% fair 4.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.2% / 20.5% / 19.3%.
Expected Goals
BRE
2.11
—
1.11
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.5% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 2-1 IPS | 9.9% | |
| BRE 1-1 IPS | 9.3% | |
| BRE 2-0 IPS | 8.9% | |
| BRE 1-0 IPS | 8.4% | |
| BRE 3-1 IPS | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).