ARS vs CRY
Arsenal (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 70.4% fair 1.42
Draw 18.0% fair 5.57
CRY win 11.6% fair 8.60
Expected Goals
ARS
2.23
—
0.69
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 CRY | 13.4% | |
| ARS 1-0 CRY | 12.0% | |
| ARS 3-0 CRY | 10.0% | |
| ARS 2-1 CRY | 9.2% | |
| ARS 1-1 CRY | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).