SUN vs MUN
Sunderland (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
MUN win 41.4% fair 2.41
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.1% / 24.9% / 43.0%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.29
—
1.54
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 MUN | 11.7% | |
| SUN 0-1 MUN | 9.1% | |
| SUN 1-2 MUN | 9.0% | |
| SUN 1-0 MUN | 7.6% | |
| SUN 2-1 MUN | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).