BOU vs TOT
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 43.0% fair 2.32
Draw 23.1% fair 4.32
TOT win 33.8% fair 2.96
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.8% / 23.0% / 34.2%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.74
—
1.53
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.5% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 TOT | 10.1% | |
| BOU 2-1 TOT | 8.8% | |
| BOU 1-2 TOT | 7.8% | |
| BOU 2-2 TOT | 6.7% | |
| BOU 1-0 TOT | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).