NFO vs NEW
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 34.3% fair 2.92
Draw 26.1% fair 3.84
NEW win 39.6% fair 2.52
Expected Goals
NFO
1.22
—
1.38
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 NEW | 12.5% | |
| NFO 0-1 NEW | 10.3% | |
| NFO 1-0 NEW | 9.1% | |
| NFO 1-2 NEW | 8.6% | |
| NFO 2-1 NEW | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).