LIV vs AVL
Liverpool (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 55.5% fair 1.80
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
AVL win 21.9% fair 4.56
Expected Goals
LIV
1.88
—
1.06
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-1 AVL | 10.5% | |
| LIV 1-0 AVL | 9.9% | |
| LIV 2-1 AVL | 9.9% | |
| LIV 2-0 AVL | 9.3% | |
| LIV 3-1 AVL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).