MCI vs EVE
Manchester City (home) vs Everton · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 66.8% fair 1.50
Draw 18.8% fair 5.32
EVE win 14.4% fair 6.93
Expected Goals
MCI
2.25
—
0.85
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 EVE | 11.4% | |
| MCI 1-0 EVE | 10.1% | |
| MCI 2-1 EVE | 9.7% | |
| MCI 1-1 EVE | 8.6% | |
| MCI 3-0 EVE | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).