LEE vs HUL
Leeds United (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 52.5% fair 1.90
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
HUL win 22.9% fair 4.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.0% / 24.7% / 21.3%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.63
—
0.92
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-0 HUL | 12.7% | |
| LEE 1-1 HUL | 11.7% | |
| LEE 2-0 HUL | 10.3% | |
| LEE 2-1 HUL | 9.6% | |
| LEE 0-0 HUL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).