CHE vs COV
Chelsea (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 69.4% fair 1.44
Draw 16.8% fair 5.97
COV win 13.8% fair 7.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 73.6% / 15.5% / 10.9%.
Expected Goals
CHE
2.60
—
0.91
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.9% | fair 3.14 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-0 COV | 10.1% | |
| CHE 2-1 COV | 9.2% | |
| CHE 3-0 COV | 8.7% | |
| CHE 3-1 COV | 8.0% | |
| CHE 1-0 COV | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).