FUL vs LEE
Fulham (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 41.9% fair 2.39
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
LEE win 31.7% fair 3.15
Expected Goals
FUL
1.36
—
1.16
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 LEE | 12.7% | |
| FUL 1-0 LEE | 10.9% | |
| FUL 0-1 LEE | 9.3% | |
| FUL 2-1 LEE | 8.6% | |
| FUL 0-0 LEE | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).