COV vs BOU
Coventry City (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 28.5% fair 3.51
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
BOU win 48.3% fair 2.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.5% / 23.1% / 51.5%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.21
—
1.81
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.9% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 BOU | 10.7% | |
| COV 1-2 BOU | 9.7% | |
| COV 0-1 BOU | 8.8% | |
| COV 0-2 BOU | 8.0% | |
| COV 2-1 BOU | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).