TOT vs LIV
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 30.0% fair 3.33
Draw 23.8% fair 4.21
LIV win 46.2% fair 2.16
Expected Goals
TOT
1.27
—
1.72
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 LIV | 11.0% | |
| TOT 1-2 LIV | 9.4% | |
| TOT 0-1 LIV | 8.7% | |
| TOT 0-2 LIV | 7.5% | |
| TOT 2-1 LIV | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).