HUL vs MCI
Hull City (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 17.6% fair 5.70
Draw 18.8% fair 5.31
MCI win 63.6% fair 1.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 13.2% / 18.0% / 68.7%.
Expected Goals
HUL
0.91
—
2.31
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 0-2 MCI | 10.7% | |
| HUL 1-2 MCI | 9.7% | |
| HUL 0-1 MCI | 9.3% | |
| HUL 1-1 MCI | 8.4% | |
| HUL 0-3 MCI | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).