AVL vs CHE
Aston Villa (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 40.7% fair 2.45
Draw 23.3% fair 4.30
CHE win 36.0% fair 2.78
Expected Goals
AVL
1.67
—
1.58
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.9% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 CHE | 10.2% | |
| AVL 2-1 CHE | 8.5% | |
| AVL 1-2 CHE | 8.1% | |
| AVL 2-2 CHE | 6.8% | |
| AVL 1-0 CHE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).