NEW vs BRE
Newcastle United (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 48.1% fair 2.08
Draw 23.2% fair 4.30
BRE win 28.7% fair 3.49
Expected Goals
NEW
1.79
—
1.32
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 BRE | 10.6% | |
| NEW 2-1 BRE | 9.4% | |
| NEW 1-0 BRE | 8.0% | |
| NEW 2-0 BRE | 7.1% | |
| NEW 1-2 BRE | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).