MUN vs ARS
Manchester United (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 20.8% fair 4.82
Draw 22.9% fair 4.36
ARS win 56.3% fair 1.78
Expected Goals
MUN
0.89
—
1.80
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 0-1 ARS | 12.2% | |
| MUN 0-2 ARS | 11.0% | |
| MUN 1-1 ARS | 10.9% | |
| MUN 1-2 ARS | 9.8% | |
| MUN 0-0 ARS | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).