IPS vs BHA
Ipswich Town (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 23.8% fair 4.21
Draw 20.4% fair 4.90
BHA win 55.8% fair 1.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.0% / 19.8% / 60.2%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.23
—
2.23
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.2% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.8% | fair 3.05 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-2 BHA | 9.6% | |
| IPS 1-1 BHA | 8.6% | |
| IPS 0-2 BHA | 7.8% | |
| IPS 1-3 BHA | 7.2% | |
| IPS 0-1 BHA | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).