BHA vs TOT
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 55.8% fair 1.79
Draw 20.7% fair 4.82
TOT win 23.5% fair 4.26
Expected Goals
BHA
2.19
—
1.32
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.0% | fair 3.12 |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-1 TOT | 9.5% | |
| BHA 1-1 TOT | 8.7% | |
| BHA 2-0 TOT | 7.2% | |
| BHA 3-1 TOT | 6.9% | |
| BHA 1-0 TOT | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).