BOU vs CRY
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 48.3% fair 2.07
Draw 23.2% fair 4.32
CRY win 28.5% fair 3.51
Expected Goals
BOU
1.80
—
1.32
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 CRY | 10.5% | |
| BOU 2-1 CRY | 9.4% | |
| BOU 1-0 CRY | 8.0% | |
| BOU 2-0 CRY | 7.2% | |
| BOU 1-2 CRY | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).