SUN vs EVE
Sunderland (home) vs Everton · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 36.0% fair 2.78
Draw 27.1% fair 3.68
EVE win 36.9% fair 2.71
Expected Goals
SUN
1.18
—
1.24
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 EVE | 13.0% | |
| SUN 0-1 EVE | 11.1% | |
| SUN 1-0 EVE | 10.5% | |
| SUN 0-0 EVE | 9.0% | |
| SUN 1-2 EVE | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).