LIV vs HUL
Liverpool (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 69.9% fair 1.43
Draw 17.7% fair 5.65
HUL win 12.4% fair 8.04
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 73.8% / 16.7% / 9.5%.
Expected Goals
LIV
2.31
—
0.70
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | fair 2.21 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 HUL | 13.2% | |
| LIV 1-0 HUL | 11.4% | |
| LIV 3-0 HUL | 10.2% | |
| LIV 2-1 HUL | 9.2% | |
| LIV 1-1 HUL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).