LEE vs AVL
Leeds United (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 36.5% fair 2.74
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
AVL win 38.1% fair 2.63
Expected Goals
LEE
1.33
—
1.41
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 AVL | 12.1% | |
| LEE 0-1 AVL | 9.1% | |
| LEE 1-0 AVL | 8.6% | |
| LEE 1-2 AVL | 8.5% | |
| LEE 2-1 AVL | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).