NFO vs MUN
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 39.6% fair 2.52
Draw 26.3% fair 3.81
MUN win 34.1% fair 2.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.9% / 26.6% / 34.5%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.33
—
1.23
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 MUN | 12.6% | |
| NFO 1-0 MUN | 10.2% | |
| NFO 0-1 MUN | 9.5% | |
| NFO 2-1 MUN | 8.4% | |
| NFO 1-2 MUN | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).